Jesus' Resurrection: Too Improbable Even To Consider?

For me and for many others, Jesus' resurrection is the best explanation for widely agreed historical facts. (William Lane Craig has argued this as clearly as anyone has.) This way of thinking involves what is known as an "inference to the best explanation" (IBE) form of argument. Without going into technical details, the validity of an IBE argument depends partly on how likely or unlikely the proposed explanation is, based on one's background information.

The shorthand way to put this is that it depends on the prior probability of the explanation: based on one's prior knowledge (background knowledge) how probable is the explanation that is being offered? The question regarding the resurrection is, what are the prior probabilities of Jesus having risen from the dead?

It's a perfectly valid question, based in a very robust, philosophically and logically sound way of thinking. You see, there are alternate ways of explaining the facts surrounding the resurrection story. One of those facts, for example, is the deeply changed lives of the disciples. What are the prior probabilities for various explanations of these changed lives? How likely is deep, sudden, life change that runs counter to all one's theological background, and specifically, is a natural explanation more likely than the resurrection? There are other historical facts connected with the resurrection account to explain besides this one, and together they have a cumulative effect. But if one thinks that no matter what goes on, the resurrection is the least likely explanation, then one will never accept it as being the actual explanation.

So what are the prior probabilities of the resurrection? One common approach is to consider how often people rise from the dead. I've heard it said that half the people who have ever lived are alive today. I don't have any idea whether that's true, but let's suppose it's off by a factor of 2, and that there have been 12 billion people who have lived and died. As far as we know, none of them have risen from the dead (near-death experiences are not relevant here), except for possibly the case in question, which is Jesus, and a few other Biblical characters like Lazarus (though Jesus' case is unique in that he rose never to die again). So taken on that view, the probability of Jesus' having risen from the dead is no better than one in 12 billion. Actually, the chances are even worse than that, because of what we know about death--how it degrades organs and tissues, for example. In fact, our data set is far larger than 12 billion, because we can also draw inferences from death in plants and animals.

So if that's our basis for setting our prior probabilities, chances are Jesus didn't actually rise from the dead. Any natural explanation for the changed lives of the disciples has to be more likely than the resurrection would be; and the same is so for all the other facts surrounding the resurrection story.

But is that the only relevant basis? Hardly. What, for example, is the probability that the universe is a mindless, non-rational, chance-driven godless existent? For my way of thinking, it's very low. (I've argued the reasons for that elsewhere and will not go over them again here.) Now, if there is a high probability that a God exists, that fact seriously increases the probability of a resurrection event. Beyond that, the Old Testament sets the stage for this event in a uniquely predictive way. It sets forth a view of God as one who reveals himself, who cares about humans and is involved with us, who acts in and through history. Its historicity has been substantiated through archaeology, and its supernatural source is supported by its many fulfilled prophecies. Taking this larger view, the prior probability of Jesus' resurrection is much, much higher than our very pessimistic earlier estimate of less than one in 12 billion.

And those are just a couple of examples. There is also the archaeological historicity of the Old Testament (as well as the New); the explanatory power of God as creator and sustainer of the universe; human awareness of our significance, morality, and meaning; and much more. All of these raise the prior probability of the resurrection to a level where it is not massively unlikely but almost expected. Jesus' resurrection really is the best explanation for the agreed facts of history.

(For more on these agreed facts and on technical information regarding IBE, see William Lane Craig's arguments in this PDF.)

Posted: Sat - October 27, 2007 at 05:24 PM |

Thinking Christian by Tom Gilson getCategoryName("<$CategoryUUID$>");

Jesus' Resurrection: Too Improbable Even To Consider?

Thinking Christian by Tom Gilson